Writing in Asia Times Online of Aug. 23, Syrian analyst Sami Moubayed said (with minor editing by APS): "When the armies of Israel, France and Britain began a massive operation on Egypt in October 1956, to punish Gamal 'Abdul-Nasser for nationalising the Suez Canal, the first world leader to visit

"Fifty-two years later, the Georgian army rumbled into the breakaway Georgian area of South Ossetia on Aug. 7, with the blessing of the US, making the Russians very angry. The 'great red army'...invaded South Ossetia, driving the Georgian army out of Tskhinvali. It then advanced on Georgia, sending shockwaves throughout the world... President...Assad landed in Russia on Aug. 20... Sending a strong message to the Russians ahead of his trip, he spoke to...Kommerstant newspaper, saying: 'On this issue [of South Ossetia and Georgia] we fully support Russia. The Americans continue their Cold War policies... The war, which was unleashed by Georgia, is the culmination of attempts to encircle and isolate Russia'. He added: '...The Caucasus and Europe are impossible without Russia... I think that after the crisis with Georgia, Russia has become only stronger'. He wrapped up saying: 'It is important that Russia takes the position of a super-power, and then all the attempts to isolate it will fail'.

"...Assad said: 'Our position is that we are ready to co-operate with Russia in any project that can strengthen its security'. When asked if his country would accept an offer of air defence from the Russians, Assad replied: 'In principle, yes. We have not yet thought about it'. Perhaps explaining Assad's strong support for the Kremlin is a statement by General Anatoly Nogovitsyn, the deputy chief of staff of the Russian army, who accused Israel of arming Georgian troops with 'eighty types of military vehicles, explosives, landmines and special explosives for the clearing minefields'. In his interview, Assad noted: 'I think that in Russia and in the world everyone is now aware of Israel's role and its military consultants in the Georgia crisis. Before there were people in Russia who thought these forces could be friendly. Now I think no one thinks that way'. There are many in Russia who undoubtedly would love to punish the Israelis for supporting Georgia, a proxy punishment for the US. Prime on the list is [PM Vladimir] Putin".

Moubayed wrote: "...the Russians realise they have limits to what they can do in this 'cold war' with the Americans. They see a good ally in Assad, a man who realises that the Russians are back and intends on using this strong reality to advance his own country's interests, in regard to the US and Syria's peace talks currently underway, indirectly, with Israel through Turkey. One option might be to acquire more sophisticated Russian weapons, to scare the Israelis into the need to finalise a peace deal with Syria... That would have to be done in great delicacy, since the Syrians do not want to upset the Europeans or the upcoming US administration, amid great hopes that it will be a Democratic one that will undo all the damage done to Syrian-US relations under the George W Bush...

"...The Syrians want to finalise peace with Israel and although they have called on the French, the Indians and the Russians to support the talks, both they and the Israelis realise that peace is impossible without the Americans. According to former US President Jimmy Carter, 85% of critical issues had been resolved by both parties even before the current talks started in April 2008. The rest need American sponsorship and guarantees. And to date, although the Bush administration has not vetoed the Istanbul negotiations, it has also, repeatedly, refused to bless them.

"This [US] administration believes that Syria is more interested in a peace process than a peace deal, aimed at ending the isolation imposed on Syria by the US since 2003. A closer look, however, shows that even without a peace deal, the US-led boycott of Syria has ended, thanks to the [May 21] Doha Agreement [among the Lebanese] and the courting of Syria by Sarkozy.... Meaning, if the right strings are pulled, the Americans might be convinced to 'bring the Syrians and Israelis into one room, and sit with them, for the sake of peace'. That would certainly drown the [planned October 2008] Moscow [peace] conference, with which the Americans were never too pleased".

Assad's previous visit to Moscow was in December 2006, and since then he has managed to keep strong relations with the Russians, who were allies of his father, the late President Hafez al-Assad who died in June 1970. Although the old Gen Assad refused to sign a friendship agreement with them through the first 10 years of his presidency, he nevertheless relied on Soviet experts to train and arm the Syrian army, build roads, bridges and the famous Euphrates Dam.

Syrian relations with Moscow became less warm after the collapse of the Soviet Union in late 1991, but were jump-started by Bashar after he came to power in mid-2000, paying three state visits to Moscow. The most recent trip comes after the Syrian ruler mended fences with the French on July 12-14, after helping solve the presidential and cabinet crisis in Lebanon.

President Medvedev is expected to visit Syria before end-2008. This will result in a set of bilateral agreement including increased trade. A Russian firm now is working on two gas plants in the Syrian midland, with a production capacity of 10 MCM/d. A Russian oil company is undergoing exploration work in the Abu Kamal region.