Byline: Bill Fortier

In a summer that has seen many fierce, gutter-filling thunderstorms, Central Massachusetts residents can look forward to a hurricane season that could bring a tropical tempest to an already vulnerable countryside.

Peter Judge, the public information officer

for the Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency, said state and local officials are worried that this summer's unusually heavy rain - Worcester Regional Airport had recorded 16.3 inches of rain from June 1 to Aug 14 for the fourth wettest period on record - has filled ponds, brooks and rivers, making the region susceptible to flooding from a tropical system that could deliver more than 6 inches of rain in several hours.

In addition, the saturated ground softened by the rain could allow trees to blow over in winds of 50 or 60 miles per hour, which is less then the 74 mph or higher winds of a hurricane, Mr. Judge said. Plus, trees in late summer and fall still have their full complement of leaves, making them even more of a target for high winds and heavy rain.

"Given the weather conditions we've had this summer, a tropical storm with heavy rain and 60 or 70 mile an hour winds would be a real concern for us," Mr. Judge said.

While the focus of the Northeast Hurricane Mitigation Forum last month in Newport, R.I., was on the coastal effects of tropical systems,

attention was also paid to the hazards those storms produce in areas like Worcester County, including power failures caused by downed trees and tree limbs

on power lines.

David R. Vallee, hydrologist in charge of the National Weather Service's Northeast River Forecast Center in Taunton and the office's hurricane expert, said a large number of disturbances off the African coast, a lack of upper atmosphere wind shear that can rip storms apart before they become tropical storms and possibly hurricanes, and warm water in the Atlantic Ocean are teaming up to make what hurricane prognosticators believe will be a very busy season.

He also said high pressure in the North Atlantic is in a position that should guide storms toward the East Coast and not into the ocean, where only fish and other marine life would be endangered.

An impossible to predict dust plume off the African desert that can appear suddenly is the only question mark in an expected busy season, said Mr. Vallee. The plume dries out and stabilizes the atmosphere and stifles storm development, something that occurred in early August, which is why a season that had produced five named storms by the end of July became quiet.

That started to change in mid-August when several storms began roaming across the Atlantic Ocean, including Tropical Storm Fay, which drenched Florida last week before moving on to the Gulf Coast, and Hurricane Gustav, which made landfall yesterday in Haiti and was moving toward the northwest.

"Whenever a storm reaches the Bahamas we have to pay very close attention," Mr. Vallee said.

A forecast released earlier this month by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration calls for up to 18 storms - 10 hurricanes and six intense storms.

Long-range hurricane forecaster William M. Gray of Colorado State University anticipates a similar number of storms. And NOAA said there is a 67 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will hit the United States coast this year, which is 15 percent higher than long-term statistical probability.

Mr. Vallee said the weather pattern that produced this summer's storms was not favorable to delivering tropical storms off the coast because the southerly dip in the jet stream brought cooler-than-average temperatures earlier this month and would have pushed any storm out to sea before it reached Central Massachusetts.

That pattern is changing, said Mr. Vallee and Joseph Bastardi, senior meteorologist for AccuWeather.com.

"The last two weeks of August until at least the middle of September should be warm and humid," Mr. Bastardi said.

That, as old-timers would say, is hurricane weather at this time of the year.

Meteorologist Joseph S. D'Aleo said recently he is concerned that this region's luck in dodging tropical tempests could be coming to an end.

"I'm frighteningly bullish about this season," he said. "I'm worried. I'm hoping that somehow we get lucky and make it through this very vulnerable time."

Both Mr. D'Aleo and Mr. Bastardi said records show that wet summers can be a sign a tropical system might hit New England. Mr. D'Aleo said the summers of 1938 - the devastating hurricane of 1938 hit Sept. 21 - and 1955 were exceedingly wet before tropical systems invaded the region.

Mr. D'Aleo's review of hurricane records shows that when the Pacific Ocean has below-average water temperature and the Atlantic Ocean has above-average water temperature - as is the case right now - the eastern seaboard, including New England, is vulnerable to hurricanes. Since the 1930s, New England has been hit with 10 hurricanes that featured ocean temperatures like this year. While the eastern Pacific Ocean is starting to warm, he stressed that it is impossible to tell at this time what that might mean for New England.

"If it wasn't for that, I'd say that we should batten down the hatches," he said.

Both Mr. Vallee and Mr. Bastardi said a warmer weather pattern that has taken over since mid-month should last perhaps into mid-September, which historically is when most storms occur and the water that keeps them strong is warmest.

Ocean water south of New England, where a damaging storm would come from, is in the low- to mid-70s, they said, which is several degrees warmer than usual. That could be important because a storm roaring up the East Coast would not weaken as quickly as one moving over cooler water, said Mr. Judge.

Warm ocean water was a big factor in this summer's heavy rain, said Mr. Bastardi, because it added energy into the atmosphere that helped produce frequently violent storms. Warm water might allow a storm to remain stronger than it would in other years.

"The warm water is doing its dirty work," Mr. Bastardi said.

Like Mr. D'Aleo, Mr. Bastardi studies weather patterns from previous years in making his forecasts. Among the years similar to this one is1960, when a weakening Hurricane Donna ripped through central New England after devastating parts of the Florida Keys; 1989 when Hurricane Hugo hit the South Carolina coast before bringing high winds to this area the next day; and 1999 when Hurricane Floyd threatened Central Massachusetts.

Mr. Bastardi said his research shows North Carolina the most likely to be hit with a hurricane; New England second; and Texas third.

"Texas has already had two so what does that tell you," he said.

In his forecast released about three months ago, Mr. Bastardi said that the current tropical cyclone cycle suggests a major tropical storm will hit New England and the coastal Northeast some time in the next few years. "Due to excessively warm water off the mid-Atlantic coast, this may be the year."

One or two storms will bring hurricane force winds to the coastline between Florida and New England and one could be a major hurricane, he said in the forecast.

"I'm not saying anything outrageous here," Mr. Bastardi said. "You just have to look at the overall pattern and that one or two of these things can break north and head your way."

"I agree with that 100 percent, "Mr. D'Aleo said.

And that could be a real problem for a region that last saw a hurricane in 1991 when Hurricane Bob blasted Cape Cod and brought winds higher than 60 mph and several inches of rain to Worcester during a very stormy Monday afternoon.

While public safety officials know what a hurricane can do and how to prepare for one, most people have "hurricane amnesia" when it comes to tropical systems, said Mr. Judge.

"My advice to people is to pay attention to forecasts, monitor them closely. With today's technology a hurricane isn't going to sneak up on anybody. I would tell people to be vigilant."

That's good advice, Mr. D'Aleo said.

"I would say this is a good time to get rid of trees that are near to your house," he said. "Better to do it now than to have to call a repairman to fix your roof."

Contact Bill Fortier at wfortier@telegram.com.

Hurricane predictions for 2008

/ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration / Dr. William Gray, Colorado State University / Accu/Weather

Storms /14 to 18 / 17 / 12

Hurricanes / 7 to 10 / 9 / 3 to 4

Major hurricanes / 3 to 6 / 5/ 1 to 2

ART: PHOTOS

CUTLINE: (1) Hurricane expert David R. Vallee, hydrologist in charge of the National Weather Service's Northeast River Forecast Center in Taunton, believes this will be a busy storm season. (2) David and Karen Kearns of St. Augustine, Fla., take on Tropical Storm Fay as they stand in the surf at Vilano Beach, Fla. (3) National Guard troops search for residents in the Lamplighter Village neighborhood of Melbourne, Fla., after flooding caused by Tropical Storm Fay, which drenched portions of Florida last week.

PHOTOG: (1) T&G Staff/PAUL KAPTEYN (2, 3) THE ASSOCIATED PRESS